1. Winners: media outlets. Spotify, Hulu, many others. The Open Graph intends to socially enable every possible aspect of your life in as automated a fashion as possible. Who can attract the most eyeballs? The common denominator content providers and big houses.
2. Losers: batch and blast organic marketers. The way marketers are going to get to audiences through Timeline and Open Graph is pretty clearly through Apps. For everything else, you’re going to be using the Ads system. All those Likes and other things? They don’t appear as though they’ll significantly impact this new interface except in the most peripheral of ways.
3. Winners: the popular. Edge Rank has been filtering the real time feed; Open Graph’s new Graph Rank will filter the Timeline and access to eyeballs for apps. Marketing will need to reinforce apps with other channels to ensure their success. If you’re good at marketing, good at building buzz, good at aggregating crowds, you will win.
4. Losers: the entrepreneurs and independents. If you have no budget and/or no capabilities to promote your stuff – whether you’re a content producer, media maker, or developer – you’re pretty much screwed. Everyone else who is a better marketer or has a bigger budget is going to run you over.
5. Winners: the data driven. Over time, you can bet that Timeline and Open Graph data will be made available via API. There’s a huge bounty available for anyone who can crunch massive pools of data and extract insights from it. Imagine being able to do massive data insight gathering from an entire lifetime instead of just a few status updates and likes.
6. Losers: people concerned about privacy. If you thought managing privacy controls now was tough, just wait till you face an entirely new set for Timeline and Open Graph.
Final food for thought: Facebook isn’t doing anything new, data-wise. If you’re creeped out by this, then realize that most of this data is already in their system. They’re simply designing a new way to organize it. Sure, stuff like Timeline and Open Graph will let more parts of your life be socialized, but the vast majority of relevant Timeline data like photos, status, likes, etc. is already in the machine.
What are your initial thoughts and takeaways from the Facebook F8